I don’t really have “my guys.” By that, I mean it’s always the price and not the player. I do prefer some players over others, contrary to consensus. But while most view this as a predicate for planting a flag and taking a player where you think he ranks vs. where the market does, I feel this is a mistake. I want the guys I like well over market at market prices.
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If I’m at a pick where a player based on the queue/site rankings is not likely to make it to my next pick, I’ll reach that much. And if it’s close to 50% that the player makes it back, I still may be super aggressive and wait. In that case, I’ll take a player I rank below my ranking outlier because then I feel I get that player plus my guy with the next pick. It’s like if you’re buying a baseball card that you think is underpriced — you wouldn’t pay more for it to prove a point, would you?
I’ve ranked all the players. So I’m able to compare my PPR rankings to the rankings on FantasyPros, which are consensus. My rankings are hosted on another site but I’m sharing my supporting analysis here.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, LAR (my QB15 vs. market’s QB19): Stafford is one of the most talented passers ever. Patrick Mahomes is no better at delivering the ball from all angles to all strata of the field. Stafford has two WRs taken in the top 50, which automatically makes him a QB in the top 10 bucket. After C.J. Stroud, Stafford was the QB who earned a much higher TD rate than he actually had given his very good overall efficiency (yards per attempt). He was about five TD passes below expected in 2023. I bet he gets them in 2024.
Running Back
Zack Moss, CIN (RB19, consensus RB33): He was sixth in yards over expected per carry. I’m in on Moss, but he doesn’t cost that much. You can actually draft Moss and Chase Brown and get a definite starting RB for two picks coming after the eighth round. Brown is all hype. He did nothing last year, really. He was inefficient in college — basically produced due to massive volume (note 5.0 yards per carry in college is ho-hum).
D’Andre Swift, CHI (RB16, RB22): It feels weird to be over-market on Swift. He wasn’t very good last year — bottom 10 in yards over expected per carry (minus territory). But I don’t see Swift being shut out of any role we want. I’m not saying he will be the goal-line or third-down back. But I think it’s 50% and 90%, respectively. Note, Swift is 10-for-20 in his career converting goal-line runs into TDs, which is average. We like the shape of this Bears offense. So we should desire the running back. Maybe the idea is that the Bears RB room is crowded. But if they liked those guys, why spend the coin they did on Swift?
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Derrick Henry, BAL (RB6, RB11): Five spots is obviously big at this ADP. Again, don’t dare take Henry at this spot. You want to take him after nine RBs are off the board. But for purity’s sake, this is my prediction on where he’ll finish. Remember, Gus Edwards had 13 rushing TDs. Lamar Jackson is great at getting the ball into the red zone and creating easy TD opportunities rushing. He does not run much at the goal line, and hardly ever by design. So it’s perfect. Jackson is still a dangerous running threat in all areas of the field, and he should add about 0.5 yards per carry to what Henry would have been expected to gain in a neutral environment (the edge players have to stay home to defend against Jackson keeping the ball). So I’m giving him ~4.5 yards per carry on about 280 carries, which is 1,260 yards. Let’s call it 16 TDs. The receiving is the cherry on top. Booyah!
Wide Receiver
Brian Thomas Jr., JAC (WR36, WR51): He should be the No. 2 targeted receiver in Jacksonville since Gabe Davis is a clear-out guy (highest depth of target in the league last year, and just about every year he’s played). Why is he going so far behind Malik Nabers (consensus WR23)? Because Nabers is fast? Thomas had a 99th percentile size/speed score and has a much better QB than Daniel Jones in Trevor Lawrence (sacks% plus INT%).
Stefon Diggs, Hou (WR16, WR24): The Texans made a commitment to Diggs. They knowingly accepted his diva ways, understanding he’ll create problems if he’s not getting targets. I must assume it’s a coin flip with Nico Collins over who gets the ball more. It’s going to be close. So is Diggs washed at 31? That would be unusual for a player with his production, size and speed profile. So Collins before Diggs, but Diggs right after Collins, is how I’d play it. If you think that Diggs’ 40 yards per game down the stretch were indicative of a total collapse of skills, I can’t argue with you much. But WR performance is volatile. If this was a running back, I’d be more worried. A bet on Diggs being washed is also a bet that the Texans are clueless for paying for Diggs and risking team disharmony.
Tight End
David Njoku, CLE (TE6, TE10): How is this 2023 performance different from Sam LaPorta’s? And Njoku missed a game. Explain it to yourself. Why pay for LaPorta if you can get Njoku 75 picks later. What a gift. I accept the pushback that with Deshaun Watson (five games), Njoku had just 20 catches for 176 yards and a TD. Without Watson, Njoku was 61-706-5. His snap rate was massive every game and I think it’s more likely that Njoku just emerged in the second half as a top player.
(Top photo of D’Andre Swift: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY)
Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports and collectibles for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He has covered a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also wrote about movies. He's been the U.S. elections correspondent for the U.K.'s The Independent. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino
